| Article Details : |
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| | | Article Name : | | | Probability Analysis of Maximum Monthly
Precipitation of Upper Indus Basin | | Author Name : | | | ASIF IQBAL, SYED AHMAD HASSAN1 | | Publisher : | | | Bridge Center | | Article URL : |  | | | Abstract : | | | Statistics of the magnitude of extreme precipitation for a
specific probability of occurrences is essential for the design of
hydraulic structures. The capacity of such structures is generally
designed sequentially to prevent flooding; thereby reducing the loss of
life and infrastructure is achieved. In this study the probability
analysis of maximum monthly precipitation data of seven weather
stations (Astore, Chitral, Chilas, Gilgit, Gupis, Skardu and Swat) of
upper Indus basin for a period of 30 years (1986-2015) is performed by
the frequency factor approach. The expected maximum monthly
precipitations were evaluated for the probability distributions via:
Normal, Log-Normal, Log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel distributions
for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The return period
of the observed maximum monthly precipitation magnitude at each
station is determined by the Weibull’s plotting position method. The
best-fit probability distribution was selected by using Chi-square and
Kolmogorov Simonov test. Moreover, the exponential equations of the
form
bx
y ? ae
are fitted with coefficient of determination respectively to
the observed magnitude of maximum monthly precipitation with
return period T for each station. It was observed that the log-normal
and log-Pearson type-III are the best-fit probability distribution to
predict the maximum monthly precipitation of the upper Indus region
for different return periods. To be consistent, the forecasted maximum
precipitations for the selected return periods are assessed in comparison with the results of the plotting position. This study
suggested that plotting position methods can provide reliable estimates
of precipitation for higher return periods. | | Keywords : | | | Precipitation analysis, Return period, Probability
distribution, Plotting Position |
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