| Article Details : |
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| | | Article Name : | | | Time Series Analysis of Production and Price of
Cattle and Milkfish in the Philippines | | Author Name : | | | ARIANE S. ANGELES, PHYLORD D. DAYAG, ROLAND A. LAZAN | | Publisher : | | | Bridge Center | | Article URL : |  | | | Abstract : | | | The purpose of the study is to forecast quarterly production
and farmgate prices of Cattle and Milkfish in the Philippines from
2017-2021. This paper takes into account the quarterly data of Cattle
from 1980-2016 and Milkfish from 2002-2016; and quarterly farmgate
prices of cattle and milkfish from 1990-2016 gathered from Philippine
Statistics Authority which serve as the central statistical authority of
the Philippine government on primary data collection. Autoregressive
Integraded Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to forecast the
quarterly production of Cattle and Milkfish in the Philippines while
Autoregressive Moving Average was used for Farmgate prices. Models
with lowest Akaike Information Critera (AIC) and Bayesian
information criterion (BIC) was considered as best fitted model. Best
fitted model obtained for Cattle production is ARIMA(4,1,2) and
ARIMA(12,1,12) for Milkfish Production. ARMA(12,12) and
ARMA(5,10) is the best fitted model respectively for cattle and milkfish
farmgate prices. | | Keywords : | | | ARIMA, Cattle Production, Milkfish Production Cattle
Farmgate Price, Milkfish Farmgate Price, AIC, BIC |
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