Article Details : |
| | Article Name : | | Determination of Best Forecasting Method for
Certain Types of Investment Methods in the
Philippines | Author Name : | | FRANCES ANNE A. CASTILLO, BRYAN S. BEATO | Publisher : | | Bridge Center | Article URL : | | | Abstract : | | Most people are attaining financial security as they tend to
save and invest money for a long period of time, thus, welcoming the
idea of investment. A study was done to identify trends in the
investment industry in the Philippines, to identify what investment
type could yield optimum rate at maturity, and to forecast each
investment method at three-year lead time. Investment methods
include Treasury bills at 91, 182 and 364-day maturity, time deposits
with less or more than one year maturity, savings deposits, and
dividend yield ratio from stocks. Time series analysis was done on each
variable. However, some assumptions were violated, thus, must only
use the identified time series models with caution. Forecasting methods
such as growth rate, trend model, and exponential smoothing were
then introduced. It was found out that the growth rate and exponential
smoothing has obtained the least mean absolute percentage errors
(MAPE) from the forecasts. Also, comparison of yield interest rates at
December 2018 was done, with the highest from the Treasury bill at
364-day maturity, however, its MAPE was highest among the said
methods. Thus, it may be up to the consumer what to choose with the
different methods given the said forecasts. | Keywords : | | time series analysis, forecasting, investments |
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