European Academic Research ISSN 2286-4822
ISSN-L 2286-4822
Impact Factor: 3.4546 (UIF)
DRJI Value : 5.9 (B+)
Article Details :
Article Name :
Determination of Best Forecasting Method for Certain Types of Investment Methods in the Philippines
Author Name :
FRANCES ANNE A. CASTILLO, BRYAN S. BEATO
Publisher :
Bridge Center
Article URL :
Abstract :
Most people are attaining financial security as they tend to save and invest money for a long period of time, thus, welcoming the idea of investment. A study was done to identify trends in the investment industry in the Philippines, to identify what investment type could yield optimum rate at maturity, and to forecast each investment method at three-year lead time. Investment methods include Treasury bills at 91, 182 and 364-day maturity, time deposits with less or more than one year maturity, savings deposits, and dividend yield ratio from stocks. Time series analysis was done on each variable. However, some assumptions were violated, thus, must only use the identified time series models with caution. Forecasting methods such as growth rate, trend model, and exponential smoothing were then introduced. It was found out that the growth rate and exponential smoothing has obtained the least mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) from the forecasts. Also, comparison of yield interest rates at December 2018 was done, with the highest from the Treasury bill at 364-day maturity, however, its MAPE was highest among the said methods. Thus, it may be up to the consumer what to choose with the different methods given the said forecasts.
Keywords :
time series analysis, forecasting, investments
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